Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c54…5cf7 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,682 (+26%) realized +$3,652 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$846per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$330est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$478
7 days−$484
14 days+$5,243
30 days+$5,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$4,023
other 19% −$454
crypto 1% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -35.0% -41.2% 0% 0% -54.3%
≤30d 8 +42.9% +29.3% 25% 25% +57.7%
≤90d 12 +15.9% +4.9% 17% 17% +19.9%
all 14 +3.5% -6.4% 14% 14% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 14% +18.5%
10% -15.3% 14% +7.1%
15% -23.5% 14% -3.2%
20% -31.0% 14% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,891 vs −$193 · ×14.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$1,557
Realized+$3,652
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$330
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage167d
Avg bet$846
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $591 $602 +$10 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $497 $518 +$21 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $438 $437 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $206 −$32 -16%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 −$34 -33%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $463 −$412 -89%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $206 −$6 -3%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2,233 +$2,176 +97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $907 +$3,606 +398%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,955 −$55 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $2,409 −$25 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $1,365 −$340 -25%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $1,418 −$948 -67%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $504 −$200 -40%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $708 −$146 -21%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $104 −$44 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $155 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $88 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $67 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $295 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $174 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $69 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $51 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $203 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $200 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $696 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $121 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 8d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 8d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 9d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,523 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 79¢ $2,254 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,556.62 · official $1,556.62 (match) · 110 history records