Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c53…7995 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$2
other 20% −$2
sports 8% −$3
politics 5% −$14
weather 3% −$24
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.3% -7.5% 44% 11% -9.5%
≤30d 31 -2.1% -11.5% 39% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -2.0% -11.4% 41% 6% -9.6%
all 53 -9.9% -18.5% 42% 9% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 9% -11.9%
10% -26.3% 2% -20.4%
15% -33.4% 0% -28.1%
20% -39.9% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage529d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $33 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $107 −$5 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $32 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $4 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $3 $0 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $36 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $73 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-02-25? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 22? Feb 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Feb 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Feb 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 11? Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will ICE detain 800+ people on February 1? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 08 $32 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025? Feb 06 $28 −$21 -75%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 04 $35 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on January 3 Feb 02 $8 +$3 +32%
Will ICE detain 600-699 people on January 30? Feb 02 $23 +$1 +3%
Will ICE detain 1100-1199 people on January 30? Feb 02 $88 +$7 +8%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 31 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $18 −$5 -28%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 22 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Jan 21 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Jan 21 $12 −$3 -24%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 21 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $22 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 19h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 35h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 35h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 35h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $11 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $21 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $33 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $12 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $21 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $4 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $36 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records