Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c4d…bb01 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$610 (+5%) realized +$610 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate85%92W / 16L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$492
7 days+$519
14 days+$422
30 days+$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$594
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +2.2% -7.5% 99% 7% -4.6%
≤30d 85 -7.5% -16.3% 87% 7% -5.5%
≤90d 108 -3.1% -12.3% 85% 10% -4.9%
all 108 -3.1% -12.3% 85% 10% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 10% -4.9%
10% -20.7% 6% -14.0%
15% -28.4% 6% -22.3%
20% -35.4% 6% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.71 per $1 lost it wins $3.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$610
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses92 / 16
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage73d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ernie Clement: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mike Trout: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $69 +$1 +1%
Maikel Garcia: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $33 +$2 +5%
Maikel Garcia: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $95 +$1 +1%
Nathan Church: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $95 +$1 +1%
Sam Antonacci: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $13 $0 +3%
Sam Antonacci: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $95 +$1 +1%
Luke Raley: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $120 +$1 +1%
Rob Refsnyder: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $471 +$29 +6%
Julio Rodríguez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $120 +$1 +1%
Luke Raley: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $451 +$49 +11%
Rob Refsnyder: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $120 +$1 +1%
Julio Rodríguez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $442 +$58 +13%
Garrett Mitchell: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $485 +$15 +3%
Garrett Mitchell: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
David Hamilton: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
William Contreras: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
William Contreras: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $461 +$39 +8%
Steven Kwan: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Steven Kwan: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $136 +$4 +3%
Marcelo Mayer: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,922 +$78 +4%
Tyler Callihan: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $451 +$49 +11%
Tyler Callihan: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $103 +$1 +1%
Caleb Durbin: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $33 +$1 +4%
Caleb Durbin: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Colton Cowser: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $466 +$34 +7%
Rob Refsnyder: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Colton Cowser: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Rob Refsnyder: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $18 +$1 +6%
Troy Johnston: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Willi Castro: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$15 +8%
Troy Johnston: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$8 +4%
Willi Castro: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Gabriel Arias: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$10 +5%
Gabriel Arias: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Andrew Vaughn: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$15 +8%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $177 +$2 +1%
Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $167 +$2 +1%
Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$27 +13%
Kameron Misner: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$12 +6%
Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $94 +$1 +1%
Eric Wagaman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $278 +$27 +10%
Randy Arozarena: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $24 +$2 +6%
Randy Arozarena: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Kyle Higashioka: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Kyle Higashioka: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Carson Kelly: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $24 +$2 +6%
Carson Kelly: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Gabriel Moreno: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Gabriel Moreno: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Oswald Peraza: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ernie Clement: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 1h
Mike Trout: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $69 16h
Nathan Church: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $95 21h
Maikel Garcia: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $95 21h
Maikel Garcia: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 95¢ $33 21h
Sam Antonacci: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $95 22h
Sam Antonacci: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 97¢ $13 22h
Julio Rodríguez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $120 23h
Julio Rodríguez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 88¢ $442 23h
Luke Raley: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $120 23h
Luke Raley: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 90¢ $451 23h
Rob Refsnyder: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $120 23h
Rob Refsnyder: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $471 23h
Steven Kwan: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 97¢ $136 25h
Steven Kwan: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 25h
Garrett Mitchell: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 25h
Garrett Mitchell: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 97¢ $485 25h
David Hamilton: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 25h
William Contreras: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 92¢ $461 25h
William Contreras: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 25h
Marcelo Mayer: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 95¢ $476 27h
Marcelo Mayer: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 95¢ $476 27h
Marcelo Mayer: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 97¢ $485 27h
Marcelo Mayer: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 97¢ $485 27h
Tyler Callihan: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $103 42h
Tyler Callihan: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 90¢ $451 42h
Colton Cowser: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $69 42h
Colton Cowser: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $466 42h
Caleb Durbin: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 42h
Rob Refsnyder: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.10 · official $51.10 (match) · 235 history records