Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7c4d…cdcf politics 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$13
politics 40% −$13
sports 8% +$40
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 117 -3.5% -12.7% 6% 3% -9.7%
all 128 -2.3% -11.6% 10% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -9.5%
10% -20.0% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×10.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage119d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $192 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $386 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $379 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $384 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $158 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $393 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $169 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $160 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $150 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $357 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $191 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $151 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $220 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $428 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $165 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $387 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 40h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 40h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $177 24d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $177 30d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $192 30d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $192 31d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $174 32d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $174 32d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $201 32d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $201 34d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $203 34d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $203 34d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $200 34d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 378 history records