Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c4a…b3e8
sports · 1161 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$119 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$100 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses615 / 503
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions49
Markets (closed)1118 / 1161
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day146.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 49 History 1118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$27
14 days−$66
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 34¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 47¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +17%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +84%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$51
sports 24% −$34
weather 5% −$36
world 2% +$14
other 1% −$4
tech 0% −$6
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 78¢ $1 2m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 3m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 3m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 3m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 45m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 34¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $1 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $1 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $1 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 55% -12.9%
≤30d 1118 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 51% -12.7%
≤90d 1118 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 51% -12.7%
all 1118 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 51% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover146.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 51% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 45% -21.0%
15% -29.3% 38% -28.7%
20% -36.2% 29% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.88 · official $39.90 (match) · 3500 history records