Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7c4a…30cf crypto 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$86 (-1%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%118W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$13
weather 26% −$101
world 2% +$1
other 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 55 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 2% -12.4%
all 120 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -10.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$62 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses118 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage139d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? May 30 $47 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 27? May 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 24? May 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 17? May 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 3? May 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 1? May 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 29? Apr 30 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 28? Apr 29 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 27 Apr 27 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 27? Apr 27 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 26? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 25? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 23? Apr 22 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20? Apr 20 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 18? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 17? Apr 18 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 16? Apr 16 $33 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 15? Apr 14 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on April 13? Apr 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $153 −$121 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on April 10? Apr 10 $154 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on April 8? Apr 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on April 8? Apr 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on April 6? Apr 07 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on April 5? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 5? Apr 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on April 5? Apr 06 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 1? Apr 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 1? Apr 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 1? Apr 03 $60 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $153 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $200 in March? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? Apr 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? Apr 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $48 40h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $48 9d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $48 11d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $48 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $48 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $48 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $48 18d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $47 18d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $47 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $47 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $47 22d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $47 23d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $47 24d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $47 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $47 30d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $47 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 33d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $47 34d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $47 42d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $47 54d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $46 56d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $46 58d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 59d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 27 BUY No 98¢ $45 60d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 27? BUY No 96¢ $43 61d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $44 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $44 62d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 23? BUY No 98¢ $43 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.10 · official $48.10 (match) · 293 history records