Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c48…6b72 weather 547 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,387 (-6%) realized −$1,380 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%249W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days+$115
14 days−$43
30 days−$545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$1,574
crypto 10% −$40
other 5% +$187
sports 1% −$150
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.1% -13.2% 55% 55% +0.7%
≤30d 127 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 44% -16.8%
≤90d 542 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 44% -15.4%
all 542 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 44% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 44% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 40% -23.5%
15% -31.8% 31% -30.9%
20% -38.5% 27% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$45 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized−$1,380
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses249 / 293
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)542 / 547
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $95 $91 −$4 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $105 +$95 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 +$35 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $210 +$152 +72%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$96 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $161 −$161 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $103 +$148 +144%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$47 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4? Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4? Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $51 +$74 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $51 +$47 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 1? Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 1? Jun 02 $50 +$57 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $50 +$56 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 31? Jun 01 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 31? Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$51 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $51 +$63 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 30? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 30? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 30? May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 30? May 31 $51 +$84 +164%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 30? May 31 $27 +$42 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 30? May 31 $49 +$43 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 30? May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 37h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $49 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 40¢ $103 7d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $101 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 13d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 13d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 13d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.87 · official $387.87 (match) · 3500 history records