Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7c47…7e99 sports 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$143 (+5%) realized +$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%105W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$98
crypto 2% −$2
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.5% +13.6% 40% 40% -9.0%
≤30d 20 -22.1% -29.5% 40% 40% -16.7%
≤90d 187 -14.5% -22.7% 44% 38% -9.3%
all 216 -2.2% -11.5% 49% 43% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 43% -6.4%
10% -20.0% 35% -15.3%
15% -27.7% 27% -23.5%
20% -34.8% 21% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses105 / 111
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage114d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $2 +$5 +251%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $7 −$5 -73%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $10 +$6 +55%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $14 −$8 -57%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $12 −$2 -16%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh May 30 $8 +$7 +81%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $10 +$12 +114%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $10 +$5 +49%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $10 +$6 +60%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $40 +$5 +13%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $50 +$7 +14%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 16 $10 +$8 +76%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Sweden May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Pakistan win? May 16 $5 +$7 +142%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA May 14 $5 +$5 +98%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $7 +$6 +82%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Scotland May 12 $6 −$1 -16%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs I May 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $60 +$17 +28%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 10 $16 −$4 -26%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $27 +$6 +24%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $10 +$5 +46%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $15 −$11 -73%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $40 +$5 +12%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $40 +$6 +16%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Oman May 05 $25 +$5 +22%
T20 Series Malaysia vs Indonesia: Malaysia vs Indonesia May 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $13 +$2 +18%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $20 +$6 +29%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $15 +$2 +13%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $13 +$2 +16%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand May 02 $15 +$7 +45%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka May 02 $10 +$1 +13%
T20 Series Malaysia vs Indonesia: Malaysia vs Indonesia May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $39 +$19 +49%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs United Arab Emirates May 01 $45 −$6 -13%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Rwanda vs USA May 01 $5 +$2 +49%
T20 Series Malaysia vs Indonesia: Malaysia vs Indonesia May 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $16 −$2 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 69¢ $7 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 19¢ $2 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 19¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 19¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 10¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 3¢ $2 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 5¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 13¢ $6 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 64¢ $10 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 33¢ $6 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 32¢ $5 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 45¢ $9 7d
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies BUY West Indies 45¢ $10 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 29¢ $5 16d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY India 15¢ $2 17d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India SELL England 74¢ $8 17d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India SELL England 46¢ $5 17d
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh SELL Scotland 81¢ $15 17d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY England 41¢ $3 17d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY England 49¢ $7 17d
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh BUY Scotland 44¢ $8 17d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 46¢ $10 18d
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 3¢ $2 22d
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 35¢ $9 22d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 51¢ $15 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 33¢ $10 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 53¢ $16 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 32¢ $10 23d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings BUY Lucknow Super Giants 12¢ $2 24d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings BUY Lucknow Super Giants 35¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 750 history records