Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c46…d8be crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$108 (-7%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate51%35W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$22
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$85
other 34% −$38
world 8% −$1
economics 4% −$1
politics 4% $0
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 12% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 31% 8% -12.5%
≤90d 68 -11.4% -19.9% 51% 29% -17.3%
all 68 -11.4% -19.9% 51% 29% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 29% -17.3%
10% -27.5% 22% -25.2%
15% -34.5% 13% -32.4%
20% -41.0% 9% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses35 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage75d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $68 −$1 -2%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $56 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 16 $62 $0 -1%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 15 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $68 −$4 -6%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $35 −$17 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $35 −$14 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $21 −$10 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $29 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 09 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 09 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 09 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 09 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 09 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 09 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 09 $62 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 09 $54 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 09 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 09 $24 −$22 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 09 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 08 $13 +$17 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 08 $13 +$16 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 08 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 08 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 08 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 08 $7 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 08 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 08 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 08 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 08 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 08 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 08 $8 +$8 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $56 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $67 1h
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $68 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $56 24h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $62 24h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $58 37h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $4 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 37h
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $66 37h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $53 37h
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $66 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $64 2d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $35 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $20 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 13d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 13d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 14d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 16d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 36d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.78 · official $114.63 (match) · 204 history records