Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c44…9246 politics 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,598 (-1%) realized −$1,600 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%29W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,500per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$51
14 days+$174
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$148
other 36% −$164
sports 11% −$1,311
economics 3% −$6
culture 2% −$5
tech 1% $0
world 1% −$15
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.0% -2.3% 18% 9% -9.3%
≤30d 49 +6.4% -3.7% 14% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 125 -10.3% -18.9% 6% 4% -10.5%
all 169 -2.6% -11.9% 17% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 8% -10.1%
10% -20.3% 8% -18.7%
15% -28.0% 8% -26.6%
20% -35.1% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,914) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$20 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$1,838
Realized−$1,600
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses29 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)169 / 171
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,500
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,221 $1,220 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $615 $617 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,229 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,225 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $236 +$3 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $79 −$7 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $80 +$77 +96%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,199 −$3 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $3,012 −$5 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,667 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,424 −$5 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,164 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,411 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,838 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $7,783 −$10 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $58 +$69 +119%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,526 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $57 +$49 +86%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $2,401 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $934 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $75 +$41 +55%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,059 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,183 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $141 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,072 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $865 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $2,230 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,981 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,477 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $9,317 −$11 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,924 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $3,960 −$4 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $59 +$101 +172%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $2,661 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $2,831 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $2,935 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $2,590 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,221 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,228 14h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,229 22h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,223 37h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,225 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 79¢ $157 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $69 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 12¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $80 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $857 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $858 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $774 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $775 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $898 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $899 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $885 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $887 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $236 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,054 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,055 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $995 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $996 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,162 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,164 6d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,162 7d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,164 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,115 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $835 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,837.53 · official $1,837.53 (match) · 577 history records