Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c43…5c88 crypto 220 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,054 (+1%) realized +$2,054 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate70%155W / 65L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$962per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$360est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days+$155
14 days+$155
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$1,707
politics 30% +$821
other 24% +$92
crypto 15% −$182
finance 1% +$17
tech 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 33% -1.0%
≤30d 9 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 22% -11.3%
≤90d 111 -4.4% -13.5% 65% 13% -8.0%
all 220 -7.7% -16.5% 70% 14% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 14% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 9% -16.9%
15% -31.8% 5% -25.0%
20% -38.5% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$846) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$63 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,054
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses155 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$360
Open positions0
Markets (closed)220 / 220
History coverage105d
Avg bet$962
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 220 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $232 +$45 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $527 +$186 +35%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $744 −$27 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $82 +$2 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $1,120 −$147 -13%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $60 −$40 -67%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $660 −$192 -29%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $1,124 +$191 +17%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $3,985 +$58 +2%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $3,555 −$30 -1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $518 −$69 -13%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $305 −$2 -1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $406 +$168 +41%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $2,310 −$1,169 -51%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $555 +$131 +24%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $330 +$183 +55%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 10 $3,832 +$168 +4%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $203 +$130 +64%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $1,158 +$125 +11%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $4,237 +$144 +3%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $1,006 +$52 +5%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $1,314 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6AM ET May 04 $1,260 −$16 -1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $122 +$125 +102%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $6 −$5 -97%
Pakistan Super League: Islamabad United vs Hyderabad Kingsmen May 01 $3,318 +$91 +3%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $359 −$257 -72%
Cagliari: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Marcos Giron May 01 $1,030 −$12 -1%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 Apr 30 $49 +$1 +3%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $3,998 +$1,347 +34%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Nepal vs Vanuatu Apr 30 $73 −$73 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Multan Sultans vs Hyderabad Kingsmen Apr 29 $1,162 +$111 +10%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $101 +$96 +95%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Oman Apr 29 $3,860 +$99 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to Apr Apr 28 $3,880 +$19 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 21 to Apr Apr 28 $54 +$1 +2%
T20 Series South Africa vs. India, Women: South Africa vs India Apr 27 $131 −$131 -100%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: United Arab Emirates vs Oman Apr 27 $460 +$39 +9%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 27 $81 −$81 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $3,966 −$321 -8%
Pakistan Super League: Islamabad United vs Multan Sultans Apr 26 $3,863 +$35 +1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $479 +$118 +25%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Apr 26 $72 −$22 -31%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $2,509 +$216 +9%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $327 −$26 -8%
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Karachi Kings Apr 25 $664 +$18 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $1,416 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 47¢ $278 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $232 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $714 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $527 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $26 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $26 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 85¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 87¢ $53 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $83 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $82 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 92¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 92¢ $255 3d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 93¢ $193 3d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 93¢ $688 3d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 93¢ $56 3d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings SELL Gujarat Titans 86¢ $964 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1500 history records