Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7C 0x7c41…eeb9 other 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$531 (+15%) realized +$407 · open +$124
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$168
sports 44% +$408
crypto 3% +$87
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +22.8% +11.1% 40% 40% -3.8%
≤30d 35 +22.8% +11.1% 40% 40% -3.8%
≤90d 35 +22.8% +11.1% 40% 40% -3.8%
all 35 +22.8% +11.1% 40% 40% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 40% -3.8%
10% +0.4% 37% -13.0%
15% -9.3% 37% -21.4%
20% -18.2% 29% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$75 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized+$407
Unrealized+$124
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 15¢ 44¢ $50 $143 +$93 (+186%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 23¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $35 $45 +$10 (+29%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+21%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Yes 10¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+43%)
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Yes 12¢ 14¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$232 +228%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$574 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $57 +$234 +413%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $41 +$63 +156%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 +$15 +58%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $92 −$89 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $96 −$4 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $66 +$30 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 −$74 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$26 -25%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $166 −$165 -99%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 +$87 +43%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 +$95 +231%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $87 +$32 +37%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $83 −$52 -63%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$40 -78%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $181 +$20 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 +$87 +88%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 24m
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $26 24m
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $102 21h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $103 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $291 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $104 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $41 23h
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $41 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 19¢ $57 24h
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals BUY Yes $26 30h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $51 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 30h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 11¢ $92 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $92 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $96 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $96 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $66 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $76 45h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 27¢ $76 45h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 71¢ $166 47h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $102 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.05 · official $394.05 (match) · 66 history records