Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c3f…91e6 crypto 317 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$533 (-3%) realized −$535 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%153W / 162L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$496
other 4% −$109
world 3% −$50
tech 3% −$31
politics 3% −$93
sports 0% $0
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -60.8% -64.6% 33% 33% -70.2%
≤30d 3 -60.8% -64.6% 33% 33% -70.2%
≤90d 16 -36.3% -42.4% 38% 25% -18.7%
all 315 -11.4% -19.8% 49% 42% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 42% -13.4%
10% -27.5% 32% -21.7%
15% -34.5% 23% -29.3%
20% -40.9% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$535
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses153 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)315 / 317
History coverage170d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Up 43¢ 50¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +17%
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? Apr 01 $10 −$9 -89%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? Apr 01 $60 −$19 -31%
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? Apr 01 $20 −$8 -38%
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? Apr 01 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 01 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 01 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 01 $410 −$18 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $112 +$2 +1%
Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? Apr 01 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $50 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? Mar 24 $119 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 23 $36 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5PM ET Mar 22 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4PM ET Mar 22 $162 −$11 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1PM ET Mar 22 $32 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12PM ET Mar 22 $60 −$28 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 22 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 22 $265 −$163 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11AM ET Mar 22 $598 +$74 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 22 $36 +$17 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22? Mar 22 $80 +$11 +14%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 21 $50 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 21 $20 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 21? Mar 21 $422 −$112 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 21 $303 −$139 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 21 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 21 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4PM ET Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 21 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 21 $20 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 21 $70 +$38 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9PM ET Mar 21 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 20 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12PM ET Mar 20 $918 −$51 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 20 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11AM ET Mar 20 $780 −$201 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10AM ET Mar 20 $280 −$79 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 43¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 2h
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 83d
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? SELL Yes 35¢ $41 83d
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? SELL No 52¢ $12 83d
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $18 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $19 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $6 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $0 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $9 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $8 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $8 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $7 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.96 · official $41.61 (match) · 1816 history records