trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 48¢ | 46¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $17 | $17 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 60¢ | 60¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 81¢ | 80¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-1%) |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $66 | $0 | −$66 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$10 | +197% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 18 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | Feb 28 | $7 | +$18 | +270% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $14 | +$16 | +113% |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? | Feb 27 | $1 | −$1 | -71% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | Feb 27 | $5 | −$4 | -77% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Feb 27 | $22 | −$13 | -58% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 15? | Jan 15 | $28 | $0 | -1% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 15 | $4 | +$7 | +192% |
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 | Jan 06 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 | Jan 05 | $1 | −$1 | -78% |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 | Jan 05 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 | Oct 24 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 | Oct 21 | $31 | +$9 | +29% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 16 | $66 | −$66 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $1,040 | +$621 | +60% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +197.1% | +168.8% | 100% | 100% | +168.8% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +197.1% | +168.8% | 100% | 100% | +168.8% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +48.5% | +34.4% | 50% | 50% | +4.6% |
| all | 16 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 38% | 38% | +33.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.3% | 38% | +33.0% |
| 10% | -14.4% | 38% | +20.3% |
| 15% | -22.6% | 31% | +8.6% |
| 20% | -30.2% | 31% | -2.0% |