Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7C 0x7c3e…1288 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+11%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$115
other 17% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 44% +11.5%
≤30d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 44% +11.5%
≤90d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 44% +11.5%
all 18 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 44% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 44% +11.5%
10% -21.8% 44% +0.8%
15% -29.4% 44% -8.9%
20% -36.3% 39% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $27 +$12 +46%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $83 +$44 +53%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$4 -19%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $28 +$19 +67%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $61 +$38 +62%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$42 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $12 +$19 +157%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $18 +$26 +140%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$11 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL REKONIX 100¢ $40 28m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 68¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL REKONIX 97¢ $127 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 63¢ $83 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes $17 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $21 8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $17 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 59¢ $28 42h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $5 43h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $61 47h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $36 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes $7 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $25 2d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising $1 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 27¢ $32 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes $1 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $18 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records