Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:52:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c3e…8b58 sports 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 653d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$243 (+11%) realized +$334 · open −$91
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$136
sports 39% +$360
politics 13% −$45
weather 4% +$41
economics 3% −$52
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -31.4% -38.0% 38% 31% +4.4%
≤30d 13 -31.4% -38.0% 38% 31% +4.4%
≤90d 34 -25.1% -32.2% 26% 24% -24.7%
all 49 -11.1% -19.6% 37% 35% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 35% +2.7%
10% -27.3% 33% -7.1%
15% -34.3% 22% -16.1%
20% -40.7% 20% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$16 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

653d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$334
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage653d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 36¢ 34¢ $121 $114 −$7 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 26¢ $100 $22 −$78 (-78%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $25 +$25 +99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $76 −$16 -21%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $24 +$16 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $123 +$36 +29%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $44 −$6 -14%
Will FURIA win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $100 −$21 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 24 Apr 24 $30 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $10 +$26 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 10 Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omeg Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $23 +$77 +336%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 10? Apr 10 $29 +$39 +135%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Apr 10 $80 −$15 -18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO5) Apr 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Apr 10 $110 −$55 -50%
Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale? Apr 10 $134 −$134 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on April 8? Apr 08 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 7? Apr 07 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 5? Mar 05 $8 +$2 +32%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $107 +$67 +63%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $36 +$64 +178%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 30 $41 +$9 +23%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $104 +$85 +82%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $112 +$238 +212%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Pereira vs. Ankalaev Mar 09 $100 −$13 -13%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $115 −$33 -29%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record? Oct 09 $77 +$8 +11%
Will Hans Moke Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship? Oct 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Oct 08 $15 −$7 -47%
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Oct 06 $58 +$14 +25%
Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Oct 06 $42 +$10 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $11 4m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $21 14m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $20 28m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $20 31m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $51 39m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 19¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $50 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 31¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 57¢ $58 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 23¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 53¢ $11 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $12 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 62¢ $13 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 43¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $11 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 36¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $4 24h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 46h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $3 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 61¢ $24 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $77 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.66 · official $138.69 (match) · 223 history records