Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c3d…5c6b
world · 140 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$248,644 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$166,952 · open +$501
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$233,571
Realized+$166,952
Unrealized+$501
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses52 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions147
Markets (closed)73 / 140
History coverage10d
Avg bet$11,395
Trades / day329.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 147 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,026
7 days+$13,635
14 days+$166,952
30 days+$166,952
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $20,142 $20,559 +$417 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $15,751 $16,461 +$710 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 68¢ 90¢ $10,136 $13,360 +$3,224 (+32%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $10,006 $10,166 +$160 (+2%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $8,776 $9,092 +$316 (+4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $7,780 $8,351 +$571 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 64¢ 54¢ $9,600 $8,025 −$1,575 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 85¢ 80¢ $8,500 $7,950 −$550 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $7,325 $7,783 +$457 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $10,376 $6,240 −$4,136 (-40%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $6,231 $6,180 −$51 (-1%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $5,315 $5,619 +$304 (+6%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $4,494 $4,932 +$439 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $4,779 $4,543 −$236 (-5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $4,178 $4,344 +$167 (+4%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 63¢ 86¢ $3,147 $4,300 +$1,153 (+37%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $3,705 $3,860 +$155 (+4%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 34¢ 75¢ $1,703 $3,705 +$2,002 (+118%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $3,233 $3,531 +$298 (+9%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,315 $3,357 +$41 (+1%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $2,843 $2,964 +$121 (+4%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 88¢ 91¢ $2,828 $2,924 +$96 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 84¢ 98¢ $2,485 $2,922 +$437 (+18%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 94¢ $2,877 $2,835 −$42 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 87¢ 90¢ $2,698 $2,807 +$109 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $474 +$221 +47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $304,968 +$5,913 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $4,005 +$10 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $370 +$41 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3,176 −$24 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $500 −$150 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $45 +$93 +208%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $4,065 +$155 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $16,566 +$671 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $9,383 +$1,757 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $100 −$25 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2,901 −$20 -1%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $169 +$164 +97%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 11 $506 −$217 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $3,678 +$1,448 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,705 +$284 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $6,154 +$375 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $3,631 +$62 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $310 +$3 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,812 +$257 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 09 $5 +$9 +182%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $6,271 +$969 +16%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,128 +$2 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $871 +$5 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,710 +$27 +2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2,221 +$183 +8%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $460 +$40 +9%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $1,602 +$256 +16%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $3,601 +$406 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $8,729 +$638 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $370 +$190 +51%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $357 −$181 -51%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3,263 +$70 +2%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $716 +$41 +6%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,291 +$537 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $12,034 −$35 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $11,121 −$10 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,488 −$227 -15%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $138,849 −$2,556 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $985 −$51 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $801 −$6 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $250,000 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $2,650 −$223 -8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $1,626 +$122 +8%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $479 +$442 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $1,068 +$993 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$5,497
crypto 32% +$149,777
politics 20% +$2,206
other 7% +$9,121
sports 0% +$108
finance 0% +$128
economics 0% +$106
tech 0% +$470
culture 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $467 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 55¢ $696 1m
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 91¢ $27 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 91¢ $155 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $209 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $185 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,067 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 11¢ $24 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $3,633 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $657 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $76 9m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $226 20m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +14.6% +3.7% 68% 31% -8.0%
≤30d 73 +45.8% +31.9% 71% 30% +1.6%
≤90d 73 +45.8% +31.9% 71% 30% +1.6%
all 73 +45.8% +31.9% 71% 30% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover329.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.9% 30% +1.6%
10% +19.3% 22% -8.1%
15% ← realistic here +7.8% 21% -17.0%
20% -2.8% 15% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233,570.83 · official $233,586.01 (match) · 3500 history records