Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c3c…12e5 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+6%) realized +$31 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day147.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$21
other 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -15.5% -23.5% 53% 36% -12.7%
≤30d 47 -15.5% -23.5% 53% 36% -12.7%
≤90d 47 -15.5% -23.5% 53% 36% -12.7%
all 47 -15.5% -23.5% 53% 36% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 36% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 26% -21.0%
15% -37.5% 17% -28.7%
20% -43.7% 11% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day147.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 68¢ 98¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$5 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.17 · official $4.89 · 157 history records