Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c39…c5bd
other · 17 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$24 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 8 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 31¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 33¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +87%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% −$23
other 49% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.1% -25.0% 44% 44% -41.9%
≤30d 9 -17.1% -25.0% 44% 44% -41.9%
≤90d 9 -17.1% -25.0% 44% 44% -41.9%
all 9 -17.1% -25.0% 44% 44% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 44% -41.9%
10% -32.2% 44% -47.5%
15% -38.7% 33% -52.6%
20% -44.7% 22% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.84 · official $1.84 (match) · 22 history records