Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7c39…cf4a weather 649 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$419 (-10%) realized −$419 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%210W / 420L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$5
14 days−$523
30 days−$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$175
sports 4% −$136
world 4% −$20
other 2% −$3
crypto 2% +$6
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -36.2% -42.2% 34% 20% -8.2%
≤30d 368 -58.5% -62.5% 18% 7% -35.8%
≤90d 630 -24.8% -32.0% 33% 11% -20.8%
all 630 -24.8% -32.0% 33% 11% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.0% 11% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -38.5% 8% -28.4%
15% -44.4% 7% -35.3%
20% -49.9% 7% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 37% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$419
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses210 / 420
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)630 / 649
History coverage117d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 37¢ 67¢ $42 $76 +$34 (+81%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+80%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 9¢ $33 $9 −$24 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 18¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-66%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+49%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +756%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +456%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7 +$8 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $7 +$10 +153%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $36 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$20 +257%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on June Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$16 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 94¢ $5 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.01 · official $104.01 (match) · 3189 history records