Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7C 0x7c36…518b other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6,641 (+86%) realized +$6,641 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$862per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$6,540
sports 13% +$904
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.8% +8.4% 56% 56% +77.4%
≤30d 9 +19.8% +8.4% 56% 56% +77.4%
≤90d 9 +19.8% +8.4% 56% 56% +77.4%
all 9 +19.8% +8.4% 56% 56% +77.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 56% +77.4%
10% -2.0% 56% +60.5%
15% -11.4% 56% +45.0%
20% -20.1% 33% +30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +96% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,536 vs −$59 · ×25.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×32.39 per $1 lost it wins $32.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,641
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage7d
Avg bet$862
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $404 +$201 +50%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $337 +$791 +234%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -96%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $204 −$62 -30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 +$126 +62%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$26 -83%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,430 +$596 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,990 +$5,967 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $605 14m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 83¢ $1,128 17m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 28¢ $133 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 22¢ $205 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $142 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $330 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $2,026 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,299 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $10,957 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $4,990 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 19 history records