Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7c35…ef91 weather 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$11
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -12.6% -20.9% 46% 21% -8.1%
≤30d 30 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 33% -4.5%
≤90d 33 -15.6% -23.7% 48% 30% -10.2%
all 33 -15.6% -23.7% 48% 30% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 30% -10.2%
10% -31.0% 18% -18.8%
15% -37.6% 6% -26.7%
20% -43.8% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage36d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $60 +$11 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 +$29 +80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $121 −$31 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $123 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $115 +$19 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $86 +$28 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 9? Jun 09 $70 +$17 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15? May 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 14? May 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 13? May 13 $37 −$10 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $54 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $60 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $7 46h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 53¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 85¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 84¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 70¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 30¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records