Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c35…ecae other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
other 24% −$2
politics 10% $0
economics 8% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% +$3
weather 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.2% -3.0% 38% 12% -10.6%
≤30d 9 +6.4% -3.7% 33% 11% -10.4%
≤90d 9 +6.4% -3.7% 33% 11% -10.4%
all 56 +1.4% -8.2% 38% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -9.7%
10% -17.0% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage470d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $52 −$3 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 19 $3 $0 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Jul 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $3 $0 -11%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC July 1-7? Jul 07 $2 $0 +10%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $16 25m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $3 25m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 59m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $42 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 18h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $14 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $34 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $48 8d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 334d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 334d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $12 337d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 337d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 337d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.43 · official $21.43 (match) · 183 history records