Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

7C 0x7c31…ecb2 world 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$324per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-10.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-0.5%	-10.0%	0%	0%	-10.0%
≤30d	2	-0.5%	-10.0%	0%	0%	-10.0%
≤90d	2	-0.5%	-10.0%	0%	0%	-10.0%
all	2	-0.5%	-10.0%	0%	0%	-10.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.0%	0%	-10.0%
10%	-18.6%	0%	-18.6%
15%	-26.5%	0%	-26.5%
20%	-33.7%	0%	-33.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$5 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$80

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage3d

Avg bet$324

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$80	$80	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?	Jun 21	$446	−$5	-1%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?	Jun 21	$446	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$80	1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?	SELL No	92¢	$442	2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?	BUY No	93¢	$446	2d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?	SELL No	94¢	$446	3d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?	BUY No	94¢	$446	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.24 · official $80.24 (match) · 5 history records