Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c30…f01d world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% $0
other 15% $0
politics 9% +$1
economics 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 6% -9.4%
all 44 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage300d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $73 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +16%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 27 $34 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 27 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $2 $0 -4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 27 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Was Kanye hacked? Sep 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $26 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $12 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $38 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $26 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $35 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $38 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $21 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $10 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $8 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.81 · official $34.32 (match) · 134 history records