Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c30…7673
tech · 484 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,140 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,200 · open +$3,780
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP tech specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58,367
Realized−$1,200
Unrealized+$3,780
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses345 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions51
Markets (closed)434 / 484
History coverage198d
Avg bet$865
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 51 History 434 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$455
7 days+$589
14 days+$225
30 days+$1,625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recession by end of 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $12,369 $14,006 +$1,637 (+13%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $9,827 $10,440 +$613 (+6%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $8,130 $8,366 +$236 (+3%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $3,482 $3,680 +$198 (+6%)
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $2,780 $3,302 +$522 (+19%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 76¢ 79¢ $3,042 $3,174 +$132 (+4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $2,651 $2,618 −$34 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $2,017 $2,278 +$262 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 78¢ $1,988 $1,860 −$128 (-6%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,677 $1,805 +$129 (+8%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $964 $976 +$11 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? No 86¢ 99¢ $429 $494 +$64 (+15%)
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 99¢ $292 $412 +$120 (+41%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $376 $380 +$4 (+1%)
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? No 55¢ 87¢ $232 $367 +$136 (+59%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $324 $332 +$9 (+3%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 50¢ $438 $320 −$117 (-27%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? No 78¢ 79¢ $312 $314 +$2 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 80¢ 93¢ $240 $278 +$38 (+16%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $276 $276 +$0 (+0%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 91¢ $248 $273 +$25 (+10%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $261 $272 +$10 (+4%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 45¢ 57¢ $180 $230 +$50 (+28%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 61¢ 99¢ $122 $198 +$76 (+63%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? No 79¢ 82¢ $158 $165 +$7 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Giddey win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $47 +$13 +29%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $96 +$14 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 13 $930 +$37 +4%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $67 +$5 +7%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $43 +$9 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $396 +$4 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $518 +$21 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $658 +$235 +36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $752 +$48 +6%
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $534 +$92 +17%
Will Innio's market cap be between $20B and $23B at market close on IP Jun 07 $297 +$32 +11%
Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IP Jun 07 $599 +$102 +17%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 04 $187 −$182 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $5,982 +$18 +0%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $56 −$53 -95%
Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May? May 31 $3 +$7 +258%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? May 31 $157 −$155 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $70 +$30 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $103 +$77 +75%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $12 −$12 -98%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May? May 30 $2 $0 +13%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 30 $664 +$233 +35%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? May 30 $1,875 +$177 +9%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? May 30 $1,028 +$233 +23%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 30 $2,539 +$61 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May? May 30 $3,881 +$115 +3%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 29 $447 +$53 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $34 −$34 -99%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 26 $1,674 +$193 +12%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 25 $4,429 +$87 +2%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 25 $5,510 +$161 +3%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $143 +$17 +12%
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) May 25 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? May 23 $90 −$80 -90%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $4,608 +$153 +3%
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) May 18 $168 −$27 -16%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-15? May 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on May 15 $688 +$14 +2%
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day May 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day May 14 $30 −$4 -15%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $1,543 +$317 +20%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $4,304 +$476 +11%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) May 09 $44 −$44 -99%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? May 05 $1,702 +$43 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 37% −$3,670
world 17% +$1,857
economics 15% +$2,539
politics 12% +$3,911
other 11% +$1,537
finance 5% −$3,144
sports 4% −$597
crypto 0% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 45¢ $28 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $133 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $150 3h
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 97¢ $48 6h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 7h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 7h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 7h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 7h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 10h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 88¢ $4 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 88¢ $18 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 88¢ $5 10h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $72 13h
Databricks IPO before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $149 14h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $52 15h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $109 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 18h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 87¢ $96 18h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 65¢ $33 18h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY No 87¢ $140 18h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $199 18h
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 98¢ $88 18h
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 18h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 18h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $76 20h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 21h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $76 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 53% +1.2%
≤30d 43 -7.2% -16.0% 74% 40% -5.7%
≤90d 118 -8.5% -17.2% 75% 34% -8.9%
all 434 +1.8% -7.9% 79% 30% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 30% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 14% -18.4%
15% -24.7% 9% -26.3%
20% -32.1% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58,367.43 · official $58,367.43 (match) · 3500 history records