Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c2e…1485 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$167 (-9%) realized −$162 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$24
sports 19% −$3
crypto 8% −$102
tech 5% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.4% -20.7% 53% 53% -20.2%
≤30d 17 -12.4% -20.7% 53% 53% -20.2%
≤90d 17 -12.4% -20.7% 53% 53% -20.2%
all 17 -12.4% -20.7% 53% 53% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 53% -20.2%
10% -28.3% 41% -27.8%
15% -35.2% 35% -34.8%
20% -41.6% 24% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$76 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$19 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $102 +$107 +106%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $28 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $119 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $141 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $46 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.53 · official $394.55 (match) · 37 history records