Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c2c…407e
politics · 142 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
+$4,356 +532%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,287 · open +$272
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$711
Realized+$3,287
Unrealized+$272
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 83
Open positions129
Markets (closed)97 / 142
History coverage24d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day137.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 129 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$629
7 days+$613
14 days+$3,343
30 days+$3,287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $4 $130 +$126 (+3000%)
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $8 $61 +$53 (+650%)
Will Traian Basescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $52 +$37 (+250%)
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6 $44 +$38 (+650%)
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $29 +$22 (+300%)
Will Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $2 $19 +$17 (+1100%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+2100%)
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $13 +$9 (+250%)
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+150%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+900%)
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+50%)
Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+50%)
Will Nicolae Ciucă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+50%)
Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+23%)
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+150%)
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will Yanaki Stoilov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+500%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $33 +$648 +1976%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $9 +$9 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $25 −$5 -21%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Kang Seung-kyu win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sung Il-jong win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Moon Jin-seok win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Yeom Tae-yeong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elect Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Lee Hak-jae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bae June-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chung Il-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Suh Byung-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +19%
Will Lee Jun-seok win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Lee Jae-sung win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Choi In-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kim Kyo-heung win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kim Young-choon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kim Do-eup win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$3,477
politics 31% +$124
world 3% −$38
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $374 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $17 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $7 7h
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $1 22h
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $2 29h
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $5 29h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 30h
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 36h
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $56 2d
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +208.1% +178.8% 14% 14% +303.5%
≤30d 97 -3.7% -12.9% 14% 13% -2.0%
≤90d 97 -3.7% -12.9% 14% 13% -2.0%
all 97 -3.7% -12.9% 14% 13% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover137.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 13% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 11% -11.4%
15% -28.8% 10% -19.9%
20% -35.8% 8% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $710.67 · official $710.90 (match) · 3500 history records