Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:12:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c2b…7810 crypto 9 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-87%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -89% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-89.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -88.8% -89.9% 11% 0% -94.0%
≤90d 9 -88.8% -89.9% 11% 0% -94.0%
all 9 -88.8% -89.9% 11% 0% -94.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -89.9% 0% -94.0%
10% -90.8% 0% -94.6%
15% -91.7% 0% -95.1%
20% -92.5% 0% -95.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -89% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records