Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7C 0x7c29…acae sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,089 (-17%) realized −$1,077 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,055
7 days+$866
14 days+$901
30 days+$901
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$1,669
other 31% −$646
world 2% −$134
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +87.4% +69.6% 30% 30% +9.0%
≤30d 41 +73.7% +57.2% 29% 29% -2.0%
≤90d 41 +73.7% +57.2% 29% 29% -2.0%
all 41 +73.7% +57.2% 29% 29% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.2% 29% -2.0%
10% +42.1% 29% -11.4%
15% +28.4% 29% -19.9%
20% +15.8% 27% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late +78% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$397 vs −$133 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$1,077
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 53
History coverage253d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 46¢ 46¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 23 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $337 −$337 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $540 −$540 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $392 −$392 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $283 −$283 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $284 +$489 +172%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $269 −$269 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$490 +488%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $218 +$450 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $213 +$234 +110%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (- Jun 17 $72 +$1,575 +2187%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $111 +$192 +172%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 +$510 +5297%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $206 +$284 +137%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $157 +$438 +278%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$40 +262%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $49 +$21 +42%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Jun 14 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Jun 14 $209 −$209 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $75 +$41 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Panama win BUY $62 1h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $102 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $51 13h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 37¢ $102 13h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win o BUY $93 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $51 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $102 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $102 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $15 39h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (- BUY 11¢ $41 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $102 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (- BUY 11¢ $21 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (- BUY 11¢ $41 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $102 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 17¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $122 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $153 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Neth BUY 10¢ $6 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $31 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $204 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Neth BUY 10¢ $40 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Neth BUY 10¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.55 · official $387.55 · 143 history records