trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 40% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 30% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 31% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 25 | -12.5% | -20.8% | 36% | 0% | -12.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.8% | 0% | -12.6% |
| 10% | -28.4% | 0% | -21.0% |
| 15% | -35.3% | 0% | -28.6% |
| 20% | -41.6% | 0% | -35.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $34 | $34 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 53¢ | 52¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 21 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $13 | +$1 | +5% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 26 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $3 | $0 | -4% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 25 | $2 | $0 | -14% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 23 | $34 | −$2 | -6% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 21 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | May 18 | $33 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Jun 26 | $6 | −$6 | -99% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? | Apr 16 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 15 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Trump signs national abortion ban? | Apr 14 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 13 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? | Mar 23 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 19 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on March 8? | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 10 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Mar 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |