Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7C 0x7c25…69ae sports 9 markets active 1d ago coverage 59d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$100 (-7%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$98
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$161
world 21% −$277
other 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +44.2% +30.5% 50% 50% +4.4%
≤90d 6 +16.9% +5.8% 50% 50% -17.5%
all 6 +16.9% +5.8% 50% 50% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.8% 50% -17.5%
10% -4.4% 50% -25.4%
15% -13.6% 50% -32.6%
20% -22.1% 50% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$255 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage59d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $52 +$98 +188%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $79 −$78 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $414 −$410 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $245 +$165 +67%
Bruins vs. Sabres May 05 $265 +$385 +146%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $277 −$277 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $26 29h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 29h
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $52 12d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 65¢ $79 26d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 64¢ $414 39d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 59¢ $245 42d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Bruins 40¢ $265 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $277 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.34 · official $76.34 (match) · 13 history records