Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7C 0x7c25…6606 weather 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$47 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate77%27W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$12
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$12
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -5.4% -14.4% 77% 13% -9.4%
≤30d 35 -5.1% -14.1% 77% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 35 -5.1% -14.1% 77% 11% -9.4%
all 35 -5.1% -14.1% 77% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 11% -9.4%
10% -22.4% 3% -18.1%
15% -29.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -36.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,583
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses27 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage9d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? No 99¢ 97¢ $1,400 $1,379 −$21 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $142 $142 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,050 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $600 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $390 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $301 +$17 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $134 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $385 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $102 −$70 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,002 +$24 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $709 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $66 −$19 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $106 +$20 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $715 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $372 +$32 +9%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $700 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $700 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $142 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $600 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $500 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $301 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $390 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 17¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 18¢ $32 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 53¢ $102 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $1,026 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $200 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,582.51 · official $1,582.51 (match) · 95 history records