Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:00:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7c23…0266 other 273 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,822 (-14%) realized −$12,265 · open −$557
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%80W / 181L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$349
14 days+$201
30 days+$472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 37% +$2,595
other 32% −$6,561
politics 9% −$873
world 7% −$1,294
crypto 5% −$3,364
culture 5% −$2,568
sports 4% −$674
tech 1% −$144
finance 0% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.3% -0.2% 53% 47% +11.8%
≤30d 26 -1.0% -10.5% 50% 46% +6.6%
≤90d 63 -17.3% -25.1% 40% 33% +6.1%
all 261 -19.4% -27.1% 31% 23% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 23% -24.7%
10% -34.0% 20% -31.9%
15% -40.4% 17% -38.5%
20% -46.3% 14% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$143 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$927
Realized−$12,265
Unrealized−$557
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses80 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions12
Markets (closed)261 / 273
History coverage343d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $390 $269 −$121 (-31%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 43¢ 21¢ $355 $173 −$182 (-51%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $140 $141 +$1 (+1%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 34¢ 21¢ $112 $70 −$42 (-37%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 28¢ 28¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $142 $56 −$86 (-61%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 72¢ $38 $55 +$18 (+48%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $58 $41 −$17 (-29%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $29 $30 +$2 (+5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes 14¢ 3¢ $70 $16 −$53 (-77%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 38¢ 8¢ $48 $11 −$37 (-78%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $46 $6 −$40 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$55 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $84 +$66 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $157 +$172 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $139 −$30 -22%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $74 −$73 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 +$78 +103%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $36 +$41 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $36 +$84 +235%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $75 +$125 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $360 +$83 +23%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $317 −$148 -47%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $300 +$106 +35%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $294 +$206 +70%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m May 18 $227 +$89 +39%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $69 −$66 -96%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day May 14 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on May 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 14 $300 +$56 +19%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 14 $555 +$175 +32%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 14 $75 −$27 -36%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $56 +$58 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $270 +$1,264 +468%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 08 $225 −$68 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $146 −$146 -100%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $87 −$13 -14%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $88 $0 +0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $142 +$104 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $734 −$172 -23%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 33m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 84¢ $64 33m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $49 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $76 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 36¢ $90 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 81¢ $71 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $84 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $67 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 28¢ $57 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $142 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $109 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $76 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 46h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 63¢ $63 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $81 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $71 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $74 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $36 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $926.88 · official $926.93 (match) · 2006 history records