Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7C 0x7c23…418b sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized −$91 · open +$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$101
other 28% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 50% -1.0%
≤30d 6 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 50% -1.0%
≤90d 6 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 50% -1.0%
all 6 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 50% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 50% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 50% -10.5%
15% -22.5% 33% -19.1%
20% -30.1% 33% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$46 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Yes 0¢ 8¢ $1 $76 +$76 (+7550%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 34¢ 54¢ $33 $53 +$20 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $13 +$1 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 +$45 +89%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $47 −$46 -99%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $53 −$45 -85%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$63 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $14 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $96 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 96¢ $13 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 33¢ $2 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 33¢ $2 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 33¢ $13 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 34¢ $16 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 34¢ $1 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 67¢ $133 2h
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $154 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $4 3h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 3h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $27 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $122 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.75 · official $129.75 (match) · 24 history records