Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7c1e…ebfe other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$174 (+5%) realized +$175 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate70%30W / 13L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$182
sports 38% $0
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +0.0% -9.5% 70% 40% -5.0%
≤30d 43 +0.0% -9.5% 70% 40% -5.0%
≤90d 43 +0.0% -9.5% 70% 40% -5.0%
all 43 +0.0% -9.5% 70% 40% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 40% -5.0%
10% -18.2% 26% -14.1%
15% -26.1% 19% -22.4%
20% -33.3% 14% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$175
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses30 / 13
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $284 +$7 +2%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $195 +$14 +7%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $209 +$16 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $331 +$56 +17%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $130 +$12 +9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $382 +$5 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $204 −$81 -40%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $204 +$12 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $188 +$16 +8%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $159 +$25 +16%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $150 +$4 +3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $120 +$7 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $78 +$9 +12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +11%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $41 +$7 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $131 −$130 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $90 +$56 +62%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $27 +$9 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Lucas Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Leandro Paredes be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $291 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $284 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 65¢ $30 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 1h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 3h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 4h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 93¢ $195 4h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $209 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $178 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $178 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $153 7h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 7h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 7h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $120 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $119 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $127 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $127 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $136 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL No 19¢ $124 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $204 26h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 94¢ $204 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $204 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $188 29h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.55 · official $11.55 (match) · 101 history records