Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7C 0x7c1d…7c5c crypto 382 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$294 (+1%) realized +$294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate83%316W / 66L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$420
crypto 13% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 9% -9.9%
≤30d 315 -0.8% -10.2% 82% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 382 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 5% -8.8%
all 382 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -8.8%
10% -19.4% 4% -17.5%
15% -27.2% 2% -25.5%
20% -34.3% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses316 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)382 / 382
History coverage87d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 382 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $9 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $9 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 985 history records