Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c1c…2804 crypto 345 markets active 5d ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$587 (-3%) realized −$587 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%111W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$687
14 days−$1,287
30 days−$1,805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,912
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -28.2% -35.0% 35% 31% -36.5%
≤30d 304 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 31% -20.7%
≤90d 345 -20.3% -27.9% 32% 31% -21.2%
all 345 -20.3% -27.9% 32% 31% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 31% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.8% 30% -28.7%
15% -41.1% 30% -35.6%
20% -46.8% 28% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$37 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses111 / 234
Open positions0
Markets (closed)345 / 345
History coverage38d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 345 Trades
no open positions (183 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $72 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $128 −$122 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $174 −$47 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $64 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $258 +$63 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$59 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $109 −$104 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $86 −$44 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $78 +$36 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $59 +$29 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $116 +$94 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $65 −$42 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $79 +$68 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$13 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$27 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$51 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $69 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $92 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $63 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $92 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$20 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $39 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$36 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $48 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $46 −$31 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$29 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$13 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$29 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $62 −$59 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $96 −$21 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $33 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $43 +$59 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $42 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $44 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $87 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $138 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1505 history records