Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c1c…0b5f weather 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$800 (-18%) realized −$562 · open −$238
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%21W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$276
7 days−$441
14 days−$443
30 days−$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$549
weather 28% −$289
sports 26% −$96
crypto 3% +$31
politics 2% −$22
world 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -35.7% -41.8% 20% 16% -57.7%
≤30d 58 -58.7% -62.7% 17% 16% -36.4%
≤90d 121 -14.0% -22.2% 17% 16% -34.0%
all 121 -14.0% -22.2% 17% 16% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 16% -34.0%
10% -29.6% 14% -40.3%
15% -36.4% 12% -46.1%
20% -42.6% 12% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$17 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$877
Realized−$562
Unrealized−$238
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses21 / 100
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions10
Markets (closed)121 / 131
History coverage54d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $293 $216 −$77 (-26%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $191 $200 +$9 (+5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $290 $145 −$145 (-50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $98 $139 +$41 (+42%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 26¢ 29¢ $62 $70 +$7 (+12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $49 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $4 −$11 (-72%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $307 −$224 -73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $29 +$4 +16%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$31 +359%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $6 −$5 -76%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$40 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$23 -76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $77 −$69 -90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7 +$1 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $52 −$37 -72%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $31 −$26 -84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $80 −$3 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $78 +$22 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $99 +$41 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $28 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $164 −$163 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $22 −$22 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $462 +$146 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 27? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 26? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 26? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 26? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 3¢ $2 42m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 10¢ $5 55m
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $82 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $7 46h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $17 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $27 47h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $83 47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $16 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $33 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $18 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $22 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $11 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $8 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $14 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $6 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $2 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $9 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $7 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 8¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $876.87 · official $879.37 (match) · 621 history records