trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 20% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 20% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 27 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 19% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.9% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -18.5% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -26.4% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.6% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 26 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 26 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $37 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 25 | $41 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 24 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 08 | $10 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? | Aug 10 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 06 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Aug 04 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? | Aug 03 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? | Aug 02 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Aug 02 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 02 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Aug 02 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Aug 02 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? | Aug 02 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Aug 02 | $66 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Aug 01 | $56 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Aug 01 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 01 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jul 31 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 31 | $62 | $0 | +0% |
| Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election | Jul 31 | $3 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? | Jul 31 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th | Jul 31 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | Jul 30 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 30 | $61 | $0 | +0% |