Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
7C 0x7c15…bdca other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$103 (+41%) realized +$95 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +131% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +101% what you keep after slip
Net edge+101%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$41
sports 17% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+108.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +130.9% +108.9% 50% 50% +55.6%
≤30d 6 +130.9% +108.9% 50% 50% +55.6%
≤90d 6 +130.9% +108.9% 50% 50% +55.6%
all 6 +130.9% +108.9% 50% 50% +55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +108.9% 50% +55.6%
10% +88.9% 50% +40.8%
15% +70.7% 50% +27.2%
20% +53.9% 50% +14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +131% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$28 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 52¢ 86¢ $52 $86 +$34 (+64%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$83 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$64 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $16 +$84 +533%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $26 +$20 +79%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.60 · official $111.10 (match) · 18 history records