Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7C 0x7c14…1079 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$277 (-27%) realized −$308 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$317
economics 20% +$38
other 10% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -20.1% -27.8% 40% 40% -49.3%
≤90d 6 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 50% -49.2%
all 6 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 50% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 50% -49.2%
10% -26.0% 50% -54.0%
15% -33.1% 50% -58.5%
20% -39.7% 33% -62.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$173 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage38d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 40¢ 48¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Yes 62¢ 57¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $215 −$210 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $303 −$300 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $102 +$104 +102%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 40¢ $206 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 16d
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 16d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 3¢ $10 19d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 6¢ $51 21d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 13¢ $51 22d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 25d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 47¢ $102 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 37d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $1 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.72 · official $331.53 (match) · 14 history records