Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c14…8da1 other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$54 (+1%) realized +$135 · open −$81
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%17W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$214
14 days+$214
30 days+$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% −$26
other 21% +$100
politics 17% −$104
economics 8% $0
sports 7% −$126
finance 7% +$5
crypto 6% +$210
culture 6% −$10
tech 2% −$26
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.8% -14.8% 22% 22% +12.9%
≤30d 37 -28.6% -35.4% 8% 5% +3.7%
≤90d 72 -17.5% -25.4% 14% 6% -6.8%
all 85 -17.4% -25.3% 20% 8% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 8% -7.5%
10% -32.4% 6% -16.3%
15% -39.0% 6% -24.4%
20% -45.0% 5% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 85% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$8 · ×4.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses17 / 68
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)85 / 92
History coverage158d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $328 $324 −$3 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $189 $186 −$3 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? Yes 40¢ 19¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-52%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ $6 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 43¢ $43 $3 −$40 (-93%)
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? Yes 27¢ $11 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 15¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $228 +$282 +124%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $156 −$153 -98%
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $7 $0 -2%
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? Jun 21 $23 $0 -1%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $289 +$211 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $123 −$120 -98%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Jun 07 $10 −$3 -28%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 07 $52 −$6 -12%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 06 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 03 $3 −$2 -54%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 01 $8 −$1 -8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? Jun 01 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? Jun 01 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 28 $0 $0 -31%
Will Sean Dougherty advance from the CA-19 primary election? May 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bill Hill advance from the AK-AL primary election? May 28 $15 $0 -2%
Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election? May 28 $7 $0 -2%
Will Baltazar Fedalizo advance from the CA-37 primary election? May 28 $10 $0 -4%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 28 $6 $0 -3%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? May 23 $11 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 23 $22 −$1 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 23 $15 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 19 $245 −$4 -1%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 18 $11 −$7 -65%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 23m a May 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 16 $6 −$3 -49%
Will Israel come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Australia come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$2 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $193 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $332 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $150 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $228 5d
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 5d
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 61¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $7 5d
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $18 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 6d
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 6d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 55¢ $27 6d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $289 6d
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 10d
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10d
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL No 60¢ $3 10d
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 10d
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 10d
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL No 71¢ $11 10d
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 71¢ $14 10d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL Yes $7 19d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 17¢ $46 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.35 · official $523.32 (match) · 281 history records