Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c12…52df
weather · 262 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17,407 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,677 · open −$730
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$487
Realized−$16,677
Unrealized−$730
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses202 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)257 / 262
History coverage52d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 5 History 257 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$484
7 days−$2,910
14 days−$6,301
30 days−$10,252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $227 $226 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $122 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 13? No 50¢ 0¢ $488 $0 −$488 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in July 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $242 $0 −$241 (-100%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $222 $0 −$222 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6? No 50¢ 0¢ $674 $0 −$674 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 26? No 50¢ 0¢ $481 $0 −$481 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 27? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $482 $0 −$482 (-100%)
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $191 $0 −$191 (-100%)
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $222 $0 −$222 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 7? No 50¢ 0¢ $675 $0 −$675 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $665 $0 −$665 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on May 22? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $666 $0 −$666 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $239 $0 −$239 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 24? No 50¢ 0¢ $221 $0 −$221 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 8? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $487 $0 −$487 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $445 $0 −$445 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $485 $0 −$485 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $678 $0 −$678 (-100%)
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 19? No 50¢ 0¢ $237 $0 −$237 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 4? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $446 $0 −$446 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? No 50¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 7? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $486 $0 −$486 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $488 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $452 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $451 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $221 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $975 −$487 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $487 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $487 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $486 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $973 −$487 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $486 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $486 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $973 −$487 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $486 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $486 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 9? Jun 09 $973 −$487 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 8? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 8? Jun 08 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $486 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $974 −$487 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 08 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 08 $417 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 7? Jun 07 $486 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $395 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $91 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 6? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 6? Jun 07 $276 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 07 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 7? Jun 07 $971 −$486 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $486 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $485 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $485 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on June 6? Jun 06 $971 −$486 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $318 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $457 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 05 $484 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? Jun 05 $970 −$485 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $284 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $284 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 04 $484 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $970 −$485 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 54% −$818
crypto 29% −$13,222
other 16% −$2,669
tech 1% −$475
culture 0% −$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $227 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $487 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $488 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $488 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $36 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $452 18h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $36 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $182 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $266 27h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $215 28h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 100¢ $50 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $3 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $218 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $487 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $487 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $487 40h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $464 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 100¢ $37 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 100¢ $449 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $486 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $486 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -16.1% -24.1% 84% 0% -30.3%
≤30d 132 -17.3% -25.2% 80% 0% -28.0%
≤90d 257 -15.4% -23.5% 79% 0% -25.2%
all 257 -15.4% -23.5% 79% 0% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 0% -25.2%
10% -30.8% 0% -32.4%
15% -37.5% 0% -38.9%
20% -43.6% 0% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.11 · official $487.11 (match) · 900 history records