Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c12…ec79 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$34 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate77%108W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$11
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$4
world 1% +$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 70% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 67 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 1% -8.8%
≤90d 141 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 10% -9.6%
all 141 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 10% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses108 / 33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)141 / 144
History coverage63d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $199 $205 +$7 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 84¢ 82¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $176 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $101 +$9 +8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $201 −$25 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $284 +$17 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $95 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $174 +$8 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $265 +$11 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $101 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $95 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $19 −$6 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $79 −$10 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $27 −$9 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $47 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $24 −$5 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $23 −$4 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $90 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 6h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $172 6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $110 20h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $109 20h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $101 28h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 84¢ $11 31h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $10 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $80 32h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $81 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $95 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $96 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $103 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $102 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $101 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $98 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $98 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $96 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $87 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $182 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $73 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $95 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.46 · official $245.53 (match) · 532 history records