Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c11…48ff
sports · 45 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$135 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$60 · open −$75
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$229
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage242d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) PSG Talon 65¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Gen.G 88¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Yes 73¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) T1 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 73¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Vivo Keyd Stars $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) CTBC Flying Oyster 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Anyones Legend 23¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) 100 Thieves 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $103 +$17 +17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 09 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $499 +$188 +38%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 05 $1 $0 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 01 $56 +$8 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $1 $0 +3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $1 $0 -11%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 22 $1 −$1 -57%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 19 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 14 $1 $0 +5%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $15 +$9 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $19 +$5 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $6 +$6 +102%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $4 +$3 +69%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $20 +$2 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $15 +$7 +48%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Oct 28 $1 $0 +18%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 28 $1 $0 -7%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $22 +$4 +18%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 25 $16 +$1 +8%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 21 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Oct 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Oct 19 $1 $0 +25%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Oct 18 $2 +$2 +110%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs FlyQuest (BO1) Oct 18 $1 $0 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $3 +$1 +47%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 16 $3 +$4 +129%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) Oct 16 $1 +$1 +102%
LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Oct 15 $2 +$3 +143%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) Oct 15 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 15 $1 $0 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% −$151
politics 14% +$2
economics 12% +$15
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster $31 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 60¢ $120 17h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $4 20h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $72 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $103 2d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 55¢ $204 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $203 3d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 23¢ $102 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 72¢ $203 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 72¢ $296 6d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 188d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1 188d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 189d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 194d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 88¢ $52 194d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 196d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 202d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 203d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 210d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 210d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 211d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 212d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 73¢ $1 212d
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 212d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 212d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 97¢ $1 212d
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 212d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 212d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -36.3% -42.4% 50% 50% -19.0%
≤30d 4 -36.3% -42.4% 50% 50% -19.0%
≤90d 4 -36.3% -42.4% 50% 50% -19.0%
all 42 +1.0% -8.6% 64% 50% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 50% -14.3%
10% -17.4% 36% -22.5%
15% -25.4% 26% -30.0%
20% -32.7% 17% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.37 · official $229.37 (match) · 102 history records