Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c10…829b sports 550 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 160d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,478 (-3%) realized −$3,558 · open +$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate68%371W / 178L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days−$467
14 days−$606
30 days−$586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$2,253
other 23% −$1,537
world 3% −$164
culture 0% +$30
politics 0% +$8
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -2.7% -11.9% 68% 15% -16.3%
≤30d 40 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 20% -17.1%
≤90d 158 -7.6% -16.4% 63% 24% -15.5%
all 549 -2.1% -11.4% 68% 38% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 38% -12.4%
10% -19.9% 20% -20.8%
15% -27.6% 10% -28.4%
20% -34.7% 6% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$96 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$659
Realized−$3,558
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses371 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions1
Markets (closed)549 / 550
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$229
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Over 88¢ 100¢ $578 $659 +$80 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $99 +$10 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $126 +$4 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $198 +$11 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $199 +$10 +5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $124 +$5 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $142 +$3 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $109 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $226 +$24 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $99 +$10 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $381 +$28 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $477 +$32 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $385 −$384 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $279 −$7 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $98 +$11 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $90 −$48 -54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $89 −$28 -31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $246 +$33 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $65 +$4 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $99 +$10 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $272 −$158 -58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $126 −$13 -11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $191 −$56 -30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $262 −$87 -33%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $60 −$1 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $640 +$49 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 +$6 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $291 +$18 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $199 +$10 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $193 +$16 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 $0 -0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $106 +$3 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $95 +$14 +15%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $83 +$15 +18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06- Jun 11 $39 +$4 +9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $53 +$6 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $214 −$163 -76%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 May 30 $295 +$14 +5%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $53 +$6 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 May 19 $282 −$240 -85%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $465 +$8 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $452 +$14 +3%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $58 +$1 +1%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $219 +$20 +9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $227 −$91 -40%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $96 +$13 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $365 +$18 +5%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $93 +$16 +17%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $85 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $42 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $42 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $42 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $42 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $42 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $44 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $44 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $46 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $46 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $40 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $99 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 97¢ $126 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $95 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $104 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $84 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $81 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $18 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $104 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $142 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $66 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $47 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $62 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $23 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $14 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.66 · official $658.66 (match) · 3500 history records