Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c10…35dc crypto 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 353d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,588 (+47%) realized +$4,588 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%73W / 89L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$7
14 days−$18
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$4,589
crypto 8% −$24
weather 3% −$21
other 1% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.2% -8.4% 32% 28% -7.4%
≤30d 103 +4.2% -5.7% 29% 25% -17.1%
≤90d 114 +3.7% -6.2% 32% 26% -17.2%
all 162 +9.5% -0.9% 45% 40% +32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 40% +32.9%
10% -10.4% 37% +20.2%
15% -19.0% 28% +8.6%
20% -27.0% 20% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$16 · ×5.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.31 per $1 lost it wins $4.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

353d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,588
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses73 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage353d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $25 −$22 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$15 +280%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $16 −$10 -66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$32 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$34 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $103 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -95%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $52 +$54 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$12 +108%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$24 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$29 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $43 +$57 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $6 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 47h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 361 history records