Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7C 0x7c0f…b777 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$76 (-13%) realized −$76 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%8W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day46.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-37.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-30.6%	-37.2%	47%	47%	-23.4%
≤30d	17	-30.6%	-37.2%	47%	47%	-23.4%
≤90d	17	-30.6%	-37.2%	47%	47%	-23.4%
all	17	-30.6%	-37.2%	47%	47%	-23.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover46.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-37.2%	47%	-23.4%
10% ← realistic here	-43.2%	41%	-30.7%
15%	-48.7%	35%	-37.4%
20%	-53.7%	24%	-43.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -31% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -6% → late -53% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$76

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses8 / 9

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day46.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 23	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Jun 23	$24	−$23	-96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 23	$31	−$30	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 23	$52	+$17	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 23	$35	−$34	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 23	$45	−$43	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 23	$52	+$29	+56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 23	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 23	$5	+$2	+39%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$43	+$24	+56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$56	−$2	-4%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5	Jun 23	$34	+$5	+14%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$40	+$18	+44%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$8	−$8	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 23	$31	+$24	+78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$16	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 23	$31	−$25	-81%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$10	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$5	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$10	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Down	45¢	$69	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	SELL Up	54¢	$82	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	SELL Up	47¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$5	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	SELL Under	100¢	$68	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	10¢	$2	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5	SELL Under	100¢	$39	2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Wil	BUY	10¢	$10	2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	64¢	$18	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 50 history records