Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c0e…a838 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-7%) realized −$24 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$38
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.8% -21.1% 60% 60% +1.8%
≤30d 10 -12.8% -21.1% 60% 60% +1.8%
≤90d 10 -12.8% -21.1% 60% 60% +1.8%
all 10 -12.8% -21.1% 60% 60% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 60% +1.8%
10% -28.7% 50% -8.0%
15% -35.6% 40% -16.9%
20% -41.9% 30% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$47 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $165 $130 −$35 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $151 +$18 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 +$62 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $55 +$34 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $88 −$78 -89%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 +$32 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$27 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $168 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $168 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $151 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $55 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 31h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 31h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $88 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $77 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.97 · official $129.97 (match) · 18 history records